At the NFL Halfway Point: Where I Was Right, and Where I Was Wrong So Far

So, we've hit the halfway point for the NFL season for most teams, and it hasn't come without its surprises or disappointments.  So now is my time to admit where I went wrong in my predictions and claims, and also boast about what I was right about.  So without further ado, here it goes by conference.

AFC

Predictions that have made me look good so far:

1. Kansas City taking a step back: So far, heading into tonight's matchup with the Chargers, one with heavy implications for the division, Kansas City is 3-3, a game out of the division lead.  On paper, it doesn't look so bad, especially with a chance to tie the division lead, but Kansas City has not looked good. They came out in Weeks 1 and 2 and got blown out by Buffalo and Detroit by a combined 89-10.  Fortunately for them they have been able to play Minnesota, Indy, and an Oakland team caught between QBs to come from 0-3 to a respectable 3-3.  So I guess for most of this, I'm going by their play thus far, and taking a step back means a step back from the division-winning 10-6 record last year.  I also got a little lucky here because star RB Jamaal Charles went down for the year in week 2 (too bad I had him on my fantasy team).

2. The Texans stepping up to take over the AFC South:  I did make this prediction after it was announced that Peyton Manning could possibly miss a good portion of he season so it isn't so great, but I had them at 11-5.  So far they are 5-3 with a good handle on the division.  Arian Foster looks like the Arian Foster that broke out last year, and barring something unforeseen, they should begin to distance themselves from the rest of the division.

Predictions that have made me look bad so far:

1. Cincinnati being terrible:  At the beginning of the season I had the Bengals going 3-13.  I know, I know.  They have already come close to doubling that 8 weeks in at 5-2.  I had no idea that their offense would be this effective with a rookie duo at QB and WR, but in fact they have been stellar.  The defense has held up its end of the bargain as well, and the Bengals are tied with the Ravens at a mere half game back of the Steelers for the division lead.

2. Indy and Miami combining for 11 wins: The only excuse I have here is I wanted to put the Colts are 4-12, but couldn't do it because I didn't think Peyton Manning was worth 6 wins himself.  Turns out he was worth more.  Even if I had said 4-12 for Indy, that would be 9 wins combined for two teams that have 0 apiece at the halfway point.

What remains to be seen:

1. The Jets being the top Wild Card spot at 11-5: So far the Jets are 4-3, and on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.  However, they are well within striking distance.  If Rex Ryan's group can rebound defensively and pull out games like they did against San Diego in Week 7, then they could be well on their way, but if they sputter and continue to let opposing teams run at will on them, they will be watching the playoffs from home; it remains to be seen.

2. The Browns: I had the Browns taking a step forward to 7-9.  They currently are on pace to come close, sitting at 3-4.  However, they have been unimpressive and haven't shown me the real improvement I was looking for.  They have found a way to beat teams, albeit in a very lackluster fashion.  They really could tank or pick it up from this point forward; it remains to be seen.

NFC:


Predictions that have made me look good:

1. The Lions being a step-up team:  I had them at 9-7 and being a contender for a wild card spot.  They have surpassed my expectations so far and look well on their way to a playoff spot.  So I look good here in saying they will be a good team this year as a contrast to previous season, but not too great because I didn't think they'd be this good.

2. The Packers being the class of the NFC:  I had them at 13-3 this year and being the sure-fire best team in the NFC, which they have been, but by even more than I think most of us expected.  They sit at 7-0 and have barely been tested so far this season.  They are well on their way to 13-3, and if I had to bet, even better than that.  The title is theirs to lose.

Predictions that made me look bad:

1.  Cardinals winning the West:  This is perhaps the worst prediction I made of all, where I said the Cards would win this paltry division at 9-7. So far, it's been San Francisco running away at 6-1, while the Cards sit at a measly 1-6.  Kolb has struggled and the defense has been bad.  I guess they were more than just a QB away.

2.  San Francisco being bad:  I never published this, but let it be known I thought San Francisco would be terrible this year.  I thought they'd go about 4-12 and that there would be serious growing pains for first-year coach Jim Harbaugh.  Boy was I wrong.  The Niners look like they could be the 2nd best team in the NFC behind only Green Bay, and Frank Gore is back with 4 straight games with over 100 yards and a touchdown.  The defense has played tremendously as well.  Yet again, I was wrong.

What remains to be seen:

1. Tampa Bay taking a step back:  I thought Tampa would step back this year and go 7-9.  They currently sit at 4-3 and have been very inconsistent.  One week they lose 48-3 to San Fran, the next they beat New Orleans, then lost to Chicago in London.  They could replicate their 10-6 season from last year or they could also be 7-9 like I said; it remains to be seen.

2.  The Eagles: I had them winning the division at 11-5.  They started the year making a mockery of themselves and the "Dream Team" label by beginning 1-4, but since have reeled off consecutive wins against division opponents.  Last night against Dallas the Eagles looked like they may have finally figured it all out.  Andy Reid is now 13-0 coming off the bye as coach of the Eagles, and they could have been the turnaround point for the Eagles, who could either come back and take the division that is down this year, or they could continue their struggles as maybe Dallas was having one of their bad games that they have every other week; it remains to be seen.

Also, I would like to throw in a bit about Tebow.  Amidst the hype and the criticism, I claimed that he is a viable QB because he makes those around him better and he makes plays when you need him to because the guy wins.  I said he just needs some pieces around him. I am hereby retracting my statements after watching him play against the Lions yesterday.  He was awful.  As a quarterback, he cannot make the throws necessary to be a permanent player in the NFL.  The Lions made him one-dimensional as they took the lead early, and he looked lost.  The pick-six he threw in the second half from inside the 10 was an awful throw, which Eric Decker never even had a shot at.  He's definitely a human highlight reel and can make spectacular plays at key moments when presented to him, but when playing from behind against a good team, he won't be able to do what he did against Miami.  Maybe he can prove me wrong, but I'm going back to my calls I made when I was a huge fan of his at Florida where I said he would not make it in the NFL.  It looks like I was right then, and not now.

-TA