Friday, November 4, 2011

Why Eli Manning IS an Elite NFL QB (And in Brady's Class)

New York Giants QB caused a big stir when he claimed he was in the same class as New England Patriots QB and future Hall of Famer Tom Brady in an interview late last summer.  Most people quickly dismissed his claim as ludicrous and scoffed at the mere mention of Eli's name being in the same conversation as Brady's.

When you look at their numbers since they've come into the league, the conclusion to be drawn, however, is that the two really aren't that all different.  Brady, in 9 full seasons, has averaged just under 3,900 yards per season with 29 TDs, and 11 INTs.  Manning, in the 6 full seasons he has played, has averaged just under 3,600 yards per season, with 25 TDs and 17 INTs.  

But when we analyze the differences in these stats they make sense.  Brady has played 9 full seasons to Manning's 6, and seeing as Brady is currently in his prime, there is only reason to believe that Manning is just entering his.  That, paired with the idea that he amassed his top 2 passing seasons in his last 2 years seems to justify this.  He is currently on pace to shatter his previous career high of 4,021 yards in a season (he is on pace for over 4,800) and come close to last year's career-high 31 TDs.  Manning drew a lot of criticism for his 25 interceptions last year, which is a stat in and of itself which led people to claim it was a bad year for Manning despite his 2nd consecutive 4,000 passing yard season and the aforementioned career-high 31 TDs.  While that stat is one Eli would like to forget, he only has 5 picks through 7 games this season, which when extrapolated to a full year, is 11.  It seems as though last year's high INT total was merely an aberration.

On the subject of interceptions, Tom Brady had a remarkable season last year in which he only threw 4 of them to go along with his 36 TDs.  However, through 7 games this season, Brady already has 8, doubling last year's total not even halfway through the year.  Granted, comparing this total to last year's is hardly fair, but he currently has 3 more than Manning.  Brady has averaged 4 TDs per season more than Manning, but when we take out his insane 2007 year with 50 TDs, a severe outlier given his next-best total was last year's 36, his average drops to 26, a mere 1 more than Manning.  

The biggest "stat" that most people have used in this debate, however, is the rings.  Brady has won three to Manning's 1.  Tom Brady has won three Super Bowl titles, and the impressive part about them is that they all came in his first 4 years as a starter.  However, Brady is 0-1 in Super Bowls since then, his lone loss coming to the New York Giants.  Their QB? None other than good ol' Eli himself.  Manning, despite having to live in his brother, Peyton's, shadow for his entire career, is 1-0 in Super Bowls.  This is the same record as Drew Brees, who is unanimously considered an elite NFL QB.  This total is also 1 more than Philip Rivers, who after last year all but cemented his name in the conversation, despite a down year this year.  Brady's 3 Super Bowls, I would argue, are as much of a product as the team he's played for, one with a stellar defense with elite coaching and Adam Vinatieri's golden leg, as by his own efforts.  Now, before that gets misconstrued, I said as much of a product, meaning he shares the praise, but it is not by his merits alone. Manning has done so with an average to above-average coach in Tom Coughlin, and although he had a great WR in Plaxico Burress along with an amazing pass rush, it was Manning who led the game-winning drive in the Super Bowl, earning him MVP honors.  

As far as intangibles are concerned, Brady is considered the king with his label as a "winner".  While he wins a lot of games, and a heck of a lot in the regular season, he hasn't lived up to that title since the 2004-05 season, his last Super Bowl victory.  Manning's was as recent as the 2007-08 season and he only looks as though he is improving.  Now with a complete cast of WRs and a two-headed running attack to compliment the still-elite pass rush with Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora (another name I just correctly spelled without looking), Eli's stock should be on the rise.  This season the Giants' defense was decimated by injuries during training camp, so if they don't get it done this year with a makeshift secondary and linebacking corp, nobody should fault them, but by next year at the latest, the Giants will undoubtedly be in a position to make some noise.  That is, like I said, only if they don't do so this year with a 5-2 record approaching the second half of the season.

Inside 2 minutes left in the half, there are probably only enough QBs to count on one hand that I'd rather take over Eli, as he runs the 2 minute drill as well as anyone in this league.  If it wasn't for his brother being possibly the best QB the league has ever seen, he may get more of the credit he deserves.  Eli Manning is an elite QB in this league, and what better way than to prove it than by stacking his numbers against the poster-child of elite QBs and the one he claimed he was in the same class with?  I would argue that Eli Manning is indeed in the same class as Tom Brady, although probably a step behind him, and what class does Brady belong to? That would be the NFL's elite.  I've noticed, and maybe someday he'll get the credit and accolades he deserves from the rest of the football community.

Welcome, Eli. Feel free to unpack, you're here to stay.



-TA

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